Coronavirus Epidemic Update 25: Vaccine Developments, Italy’s Response, and Mortality Rate Trends

By Paul Henry / in , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , /

welcome to another MedCram lecture on
the SARS cough to virus causing the kovat 19 disease this update is for the
25th of February 2020 and we’re gonna talk about Italy and China and then
vaccines this is gonna be kind of interesting when we get into that and
again here are the numbers that they are reporting so I’m simply reporting what
they are reporting and we’ve hit 80 thousand proper total deaths at almost
2700 total recovered 27,000 and so we’re up to a differential there of 10 times I
remember when that was almost on par in fact when it was even less than the
number of total deaths so whereas total deaths have leveled off we still have an
increasing amount of total recovery which is always a good thing let’s look
at the nucleus wealth site which I’ve found to have some interesting graphs
that are unique to it I’m gonna scroll all the way down here to the bottom
where they talk about the mortality rate or the case fatality rate and as we’ve
talked about there is a bit of a delay in measuring what the total cases are
right now compared to what the total deaths are right now there’s been a
question about whether or not you should delay the mortality accounts and look
back four days eight days or 12 days depending on how long it takes somebody
an average to die from the onset and in looking at those it’s interesting that
if you look at all of the cases outside of Wuhan in the rest of China you can
see here that if you look at a full 12 days out that the mortality rate or case
fatality rate reaches around the same asymptote as if you look at eight days
versus if you look at four days and that’s just under 1% if you look at who
Bay province which is where who Han is and you do the same sort of analysis it
all settles out again but not at just below 1% but just below 5% this kind of
makes sense if you think about the fact that inside who Bay where most of the
cases were their health care industry is going to be more overwhelmed and
therefore perhaps have a higher case fatality rate so you can take a look at
this site we’ll put the link to it in the description below we go
over to the world ometer as we have done in the past you can see similar numbers
here where I like to look as the active cases and the close cases of the closed
cases that we have 91% of recovered and been discharged and 9% deaths if we look
further on down we come to the latest updates for February 25th we can see
here that there’s one new death in South Korea another death on the diamond
princess two new cases in Italy and 60 new cases in South Korea possibly some
good news here in South Korea is that the 60 new cases that were seen today in
South Korea is a sharp decline in new cases compared to 161 and so this may be
that there might be a cluster in fact that’s what they’re saying that there’s
two clusters and that has to do with this church where they had met and this
may be the reason for the spreading and this accounts for over 50% of the cases
within South Korea let’s go over to another site this is my Reuters title
battle against coronavirus turns to Italy Wall Street falls on pandemic
fares over a thousand point loss on the Dow Jones on the 24th a couple of
interesting things here at kind of contrast what they did in China and
what’s going on in Italy of course in China things seem to be not rising as
fast and in Italy things seem to be climbing pretty rapidly and so they
talked here about China putting cities in lockdown Italian authorities are also
doing similar things sealing off the worst-affected towns closing schools
halting the carnival in Venice what they say here interestingly this is from
Reuters China’s actions especially in Wuhan the epicenter of the outbreak
probably prevented hundreds of thousands of cases said the head of the w-h-o
delegation in China Bruce Aylward the rest of the world to learn from the
lesson of acting fast they’re at a point now where the number of cure people
coming out of the hospitals each day is more than the sick going in he said the
surge of cases outside of mainland China triggered sharp falls in global markets
specifically in Italy as investors fled to safe havens and they talks about the
European equities markets he goes on to talk about the epidemic in
China peaking between January 23rd and February 2nd and they say has been
declining since dr. Mike Ryan the head of the w-h-o emergencies program told
reporters it is still possible to contain the virus and that it might
appear each year like the flu quote the virus may settle down into an endemic
pattern of transmission into a seasonal pattern of transmission or it could
accelerate into a full-blown global pandemic he said in Geneva on Monday and
at this point it’s not possible to say which of these realities is going to
happen goes on to talk about how the Trump administration is requesting a
billion dollars to deal with the corona virus now specifically what it is that’s
going on in China we’ve got China’s National Health Commission said that
while the rapid rise had been halted the situation was still grim he said over
3,000 medical staff have become infected most in hebei province surrounding Wuhan
probably due to the lack of protective gear and fatigue and we talked about the
fact that they a case fatality rate in Wuhan was higher than it is in the rest
of China we also talked previously about the fact that there was no protective
gear but we also talked about the need for sleep and the ability to sleep and
get rest and of course if there are a number of professional colleagues of
yours who are infected in quarantine that’s going to increase the load on you
that’s gonna make you more fatigued and hence we see videos of health care
providers in China collapsing and we hear a number of these physicians are
actually Sur coming to the virus so at this point excluding obaid mainland
China reported 11 new cases that’s the lowest since they started actually
taking figures On January 20th overall China reported 409 new cases on the
mainland down from 648 a day earlier there was a measure of relief it says
for the world’s second largest economy has more than 20 province level
jurisdictions including Beijing and Shanghai here we go
reported zero new infections whereas what’s going on outside of China while
things are taking off we’ve got 29 countries and territories
with a death toll of about two dozen according to the Reuters tally South
Korea 231 new cases making its total to 833 we see a couple of new countries
that have come to the table here Kuwait Bahrain Oman and Afghanistan they are
believed to be cases that have been to Iran in the past so a lot of things
going on it’s almost like a Tale of Two Cities it seems as though China has had
a huge hit but things may be on the verge of something different potentially
we’ll have to see and then we have Italy and South Korea which are taking off
want to talk briefly about another interesting article this is in the Wall
Street Journal we’ll put a copy of this link as well on the description below
this fascinating article which you will probably need to have a log in to read
it talks about this drugmaker moderna incorporated which has shipped its first
batch of its rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to US government
researchers who will launch the first human tests of whether the experiment
could help suppress the epidemic originating in China now why is this
experimental well I encourage you to actually watch the video that is on this
site and you’ll see what I’m talking about but very briefly let me explain to
you what it is that’s going on there okay so normally what happens is a virus
here’s the virus goes in and infects a cell and what happens is these proteins
go on the surface of the cell when this virus infects the cell these proteins
here are very important because it tells the body that this is an infected cell
or that this for instance is a virus and what they normally do is they will
normally take the virus and they will inactivate it or kill it and they will
inject it in and what will happen here is that these proteins will induce an
antibody response in the body that allows the body to have many of these
antibodies already ready to fight so this is the normal
situation up here and the problem is it takes many months to create this type of
model where you can inject these proteins into the body so that you can
have these antibodies form against these proteins what they’re planning on doing
from what I’m getting from this article is something completely different in
terms of a vaccine what they’re really doing here is they’re having a cell and
because they have the genome of this virus they’re able to inject in this
case the RNA somehow into the body and this RNA will then go into the cells
which will tell the cells to produce the antigens which will then cause the
antibodies to form against it so in other words instead of having the virus
or the lab produce these antigens to inject into the human so that the human
can make antibodies what they’re instead of doing is isolating the genomic
sequences themselves having them tell your own cells to produce these antigens
and then these antigens are going to cause antibodies to be formed and that
is how they can do this much faster because they don’t have to go through
all the sequences of having this be done in other words making this they can have
your cells make the vaccine for you and then have you self immunized against the
virus and it seems as though this really hasn’t been done before and so according
to that Wall Street Journal article it looks as though they’re going to be
starting clinical trials in April and so that would be three months from the time
that they learned about the genome to the point where they can actually get a
vaccine for human clinical trials now this is a new technology and for some
people this may sound really cool for others it may be well what are the side
effects of this what’s going to happen when you’re starting to put DNA or RNA
and structions messenger RNA in most cases
in this case into your cells and tell them to make proteins that are foreign
to your body to cause an immune response it almost sounds like an autoimmune
condition so it’s gonna be interesting to see what happens and what are the
side effects of this to get a better understanding of this you’re going to
need to know about molecular biology and as it just so happens we have a video
that’s a primer on molecular biology because what we’re about to do is get
into the details of the corona virus life cycle and what it actually does in
the cell and how it’s different from other viruses thanks for joining us

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